Week 6 DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics

Estimated studying time: 6 mins

This season, we will analyze all the NFL’s “island” video games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, using PFF’s weekly projections, present making a bet strains and hundreds of thousands of simulated ancient combos to spot the most efficient and worst values for an upcoming matchup.

There are 5 primary parts to this Showdown slate research that you simply’ll to find underneath:

  • A breakdown of technique and probably the most identical ancient matchup to this recreation: 2022 Week 3:. Los Angeles ChargersJacksonville Jaguars, with Justin Herbert as himself and Trevor Lawrence enjoying the function of Russell Wilson.
  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and overall roster) for each groups in line with the result of identical ancient matchups.
  • Comparison of participant possession projections for FLEX and CPT produced by way of a fashion educated on 2018-2022 Showdown contest effects to optimum allocations.
  • Recent CPT possession developments are illustrated for each beginning lineups.
  • A desk appearing the most typical gamers on optimum lineups for every participant. This lets you see which different gamers are repeatedly discovered at the similar optimum lineups as a participant you’re interested by rostering.

Methodology

To analyze this explicit Showdown slate, I seemed via 1000’s of NFL matchups from 2014 to 2022 and discovered the nearest analogies to this contest in keeping with the next parameters: making a bet unfold, over/beneath and moderate delusion issues scoring for the top-ranked positional gamers of each rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I received’t element each and every matchup that falls into the end 100 for this recreation, however for representation functions, let’s have a look at probably the most identical matchup:

Historical Current
Player Pos Team Player Pos Team
Justin Herbert QB LAC Justin Herbert QB LAC
Austin Ekeler RB LAC Austin Ekeler RB LAC
Mike Williams WR LAC Mike Williams WR LAC
Gerald Everett TE LAC Gerald Everett TE LAC
Trevor Lawrence QB JAX Russell Wilson QB DEN
James Robinson RB JAX Melvin Gordon III RB DEN
Christian Kirk WR JAX Courtland Sutton WR DEN
Evan Engram TE JAX Albert Okwuegbunam TE DEN

The unfold and over/beneath are identical in those matchups (Chargers -6.5, 45.5 O/U as opposed to this matchup at Chargers -4.5, 45.5 O/U). All the gamers aren’t best possible fits, however that’s why we use 100 identical matchups and now not simply the only maximum identical.

The optimum roster for that ancient matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they’re for this showdown slate, would were:

Player Team Position Roster Position Fantasy Pts
Zay Jones JAX WR CPT 24.5
James Robinson JAX RB FLEX 23.6
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB FLEX 23.2
Christian Kirk JAX WR FLEX 19.2
Josh Palmer LAC WR FLEX 15.9
Marvin Jones Jr. JAX WR FLEX 13.3

For this recreation and 99 different identical matchups, I calculated each and every conceivable aggregate that matches with Showdown laws (one CPT, a minimum of one offensive participant from every staff) and would fall beneath the $50K wage threshold, assuming the salaries for the ancient identical matchups are the similar as the ones for this contest.

Choosing the best captain

The most unusual a part of the layout, and due to this fact the most important alternative for a aggressive merit, is opting for your CPT. Should you at all times select a QB who in most cases has the absolute best absolute delusion scoring? Are defenses and kickers viable choices? RB as opposed to WR?

I went during the hundreds of thousands of conceivable lineup combos for the 100 maximum identical matchups and discovered who the CPT choices have been at the top-five scoring lineups for every matchup. Here are the five hundred CPT alternatives from the ones matchups by way of place rank in keeping with wage.

Breaking down overall optimum rosters

This graph illustrates the total vary of allocations for the other positions to measure how most of the 500 optimum rosters had precisely 0, one or two of the given positions.

Historical possession

The boxplot above presentations the levels for CPT possession for every beginning participant in contests since 2019.

Projected possession as opposed to optimum

This is the place the research comes in combination and turns into actionable. What’s maximum essential when viewing those numbers is to distinction them to the optimum numbers taken from the research above for various positions. Then, we see the place the leverage would possibly exist.

The two tables underneath evaluate the optimum allocations above, with changes for the staff of this actual matchup, to our possession projections for CPT and FLEX.

DraftKings showdown captain

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