I went 1-1-1 ultimate week to convey my season highest bets overall to 7-4-1 towards the unfold. The climate in Baltimore harm Josh Allen’s mismatch towards the Ravens secondary, leading to a push, and I put an excessive amount of religion within the Rams cross rush towards Jimmy Garoppolo. But no longer this week!
Cowboys vs. Rams
Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys edge rushers vs. Rams offensive tackles
Key stat: The Rams rank nineteenth in cross block win fee this yr, whilst the Cowboys are first in cross rush win fee.
The Rams are suffering in a couple of key spaces this season because of offseason departures:
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Pass rush: They rank thirty first in drive fee after shedding Von Miller. They ranked 9th ultimate season.
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Second possibility: Matthew Stafford has a 75.5 passer ranking focused on someone however Cooper Kupp. It used to be 94.6 ultimate yr after they had a greater moment possibility with Odell Beckham Jr.
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O-line: Stafford has two video games with seven-plus sacks this season after having two such video games in his first 13 seasons mixed. LT Andrew Whitworth retired this previous offseason.
All this to mention, I’m no longer as bullish at the Rams till they iron out a few of these problems, particularly with Dallas’ cross rush in place to reveal the Rams’ all at once suspect offensive line. Los Angeles ranks nineteenth in cross block win fee this yr after main the NFL ultimate season. Left take on Joe Noteboom, who changed Whitworth, has allowed essentially the most pressures (19) and tied for essentially the most sacks (5) of any offensive lineman this season. Right take on Rob Havenstein has allowed 10 pressures, too. The Cowboys rank first in cross rush win fee. No workforce beats its blocks extra continuously than Dallas. That’s because of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, who’re the one teammates to rank within the most sensible 10 on this stat amongst edge rushers.
I’m banking on the ones two to make Stafford uncomfortable and drive a mistake, which we have noticed ahead of. I additionally do not thoughts using the recent hand with Cooper Rush, who’s 4-0 SU and ATS in his occupation, together with 3 begins as an underdog. Rush additionally does not have a turnover in 3 begins this yr.
Pick: Cowboys
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Eagles vs. Cardinals
Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts vs. Cardinals secondary
Key stat: The Eagles rank 1/3 in yards after catch in step with reception this season, whilst the Cardinals protection ranks second-worst in YAC/reception allowed.
Full disclosure, I’m no longer a large believer within the Eagles (but), as they have not crushed a super workforce and have been 0-7 towards playoff groups ultimate yr. But … I believe assured on this matchup towards the suffering Cardinals, who’ve misplaced seven directly at house, failing to hide in every sport.
Philadelphia’s offense is not one-dimensional with the emergence of Hurts, thank you partly to A.J. Brown’s arrival. He ranks moment within the NFL in yards in step with strive when passing throughout the pocket, up from 14th ultimate season. He is averaging over 10 yards in step with strive when focused on both Brown, DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert, a trio that would run wild Sunday. The Eagles rank 1/3 within the league in yards after catch in step with reception, whilst Arizona’s protection is second-worst in that class. Even if you do not depend the Chiefs‘ 44-point beatdown in Arizona in Week 1, the Cardinals are third-worst on this stat since.
Look for Brown to offer them complications around the center, as he is stuck 11 to twelve goals for 166 yards on slants this yr, all highest figures within the league.
Pick: Eagles
49ers vs. Panthers
Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Baker Mayfield vs. 49ers protection
Key stat: The Panthers rank ultimate in offensive EPA, whilst the 49ers rank first in defensive EPA this season
The Panthers offense as opposed to the 49ers protection is a case of an overly movable object towards an unstoppable drive. Carolina’s struggles fall on Mayfield, who ranks ultimate in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) and is second-worst in NFL Next Gen Stats’ CPOE (final touch proportion over expectation). He’s finishing 54.7% of his passes this season regardless of an anticipated final touch proportion of 67.1%. He had arguably the worst sport of his occupation in his handiest different matchup towards the 49ers, again in 2019 (8-for-22, 100 yards, 0 touchdowns and two interceptions in a 31-3 loss).
We may just see a repeat efficiency towards a 49ers protection that has no longer allowed a landing cross since Week 1. It is permitting the fewest yards in step with play by means of any workforce thru 4 video games for the reason that 2008 (*5*)Steelers and Ravens. San Francisco has normally had one of the vital league’s highest defenses in recent times, nevertheless it seems to be even higher in 2022 after plugging holes within the secondary with new starters at protection Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson, at the side of cornerback Charvarius Ward. With holes plugged up within the secondary, we’re even seeing defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans draw up extra unique blitzes like those you may have noticed towards the Rams on Monday evening. They seem to be an entire protection on each and every degree. Using grades by means of Pro Football Focus, they’re the one workforce within the NFL with a participant ranked within the most sensible 15 at each and every place on protection this season (DE, DT, LB, CB, S). Don’t disregard DPOY candidate Nick Bosa, both. He leads the NFL in pressures (30) and sacks (six) this season, and he’s going to be coming for Mayfield.
My ultimate vote of self assurance for this select can be Carolina’s NFL-worst 3-15 document ATS in its ultimate 18 video games.
Pick: 49ers