MLB World Series 2022 Odds: Breaking Down Chances of Final 8 Teams
0 of 8
Los Angeles’ Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (Harry How/Getty Images)
Of the 8 groups last within the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason, who is most fitted to win 11 extra video games and a World Series name?
After a wild-card around that includes two extremely incredible comebacks through a street staff (Philadelphia’s six-run 9th inning; Seattle’s erasure of an 8-1 deficit), a sport with 39 strikeouts ahead of a run was once in the end scored within the fifteenth inning and Max Scherzer getting lit up for 4 domestic runs, goodness handiest is aware of what to anticipate the remaining of the best way.
But we now have damaged down the probabilities of each and every of the 8 last groups, comparing them in 5 classes: hitting, baserunning, fielding, beginning pitching and reduction pitching.
A ranking was once assigned to each and every of the 5 classes, with 10 being the best. Those 5 numbers had been then mixed for an total ranking capped at 50. The upper the entire ranking, the extra well-rounded the staff is and the much more likely it’s to win all of it.
DraftKings World Series odds are indexed on the best of each and every staff’s segment, however groups are offered in ascending order of total ranking.
San Diego Padres
1 of 8
San Diego’s Manny Machado (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +1000
You would not are aware of it from the 17 runs they scored in opposition to the Mets, together with Trent Grisham clubbing domestic runs off each Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, however the Padres had, through some distance, the least-productive regular-season offense a few of the six NL groups to make the postseason. I imply, all of us concept for a couple of days there in early August—once they traded for Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury, however ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. was once suspended for the remaining of the season—that they had been about to in the end move on a tear. However, this staff is vulnerable to get close out on any night time Manny Machado has an O-fer on the dish.
The Padres handiest formally registered 71 stolen-base makes an attempt all the way through the steady season, and they were given thrown out on 22 of them. And, sadly, they traded Esteury Ruiz and his 85 minor-league stolen bases in 2022 to the Brewers, so that they not also have one of the ones ultra-valuable-in-October speedsters to place at the roster only for pinch-running. Machado and Ha-Seong Kim can run sometimes, however there is simply no longer a lot for combatants to fret about right here.
The Padres are no less than higher than moderate on protection. The Kim and Machado part of the infield is fairly sturdy, and Jake Cronenworth is not any slouch at moment base. They even have plus vary from Trent Grisham in middle box. What they do not have, although, is a robust catcher. San Diego ranked ultimate within the majors with a 13 p.c caught-stealing price and would have additionally ranked ultimate in handed balls (13) if the White Sox hadn’t had 15 of them. Good factor Austin Nola no less than bats .251 to make up for it just a little.
Starting Pitching: 8.9/10
Here’s the place San Diego no less than has a preventing probability in opposition to someone, as demonstrated within the wild-card around. Blake Snell were given slightly walk-happy in Game 2, however he, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove were cast all season, particularly in the second one part for each Snell and Darvish. And if there have been any issues about Musgrove, he silenced the ones with seven one-hit innings within the win-or-go-home Game 3. As some distance as a fourth starter is worried, although, that is probably not beautiful. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea have actually struggled over the last few months.
Relief Pitching: 9.1/10
The ranking right here actually is determined by your believe stage with Josh Hader. He was once a crisis from July 4 via August 28, however he had an 0.79 ERA down the stretch and ensured there was once no overdue drama on the finish of Game 3 in New York. If he is again to his standard stage of dominance, the Padres have an excellent bullpen state of affairs with Hader because the anchor to Robert Suarez, Luis García and converted-starter Nick Martinez.
Overall Score: 42.2/50
2 of 8
Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (Logan Riely/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +1100
The Phillies have this season’s highest hitting catcher (J.T. Realmuto), this season’s highest domestic run hitter no longer named Aaron Judge (Kyle Schwarber), a good higher slugger who ignored just about part the season (Bryce Harper) and a primary baseman who quietly hit 30 homers (Rhys Hoskins). The manufacturing drops off in a rush after that high 4. However, there is no longer a unmarried black hollow within the lineup, and Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm and Jean Segura each and every hit higher than .275 with the occasional round-tripper.
Realmuto led the best way with 21 stolen bases, however a complete of seven Phillies swiped no less than seven luggage this season. They even have a cast pinch runner in Edmundo Sosa, who stole 3 bases in simply 25 video games after coming over from St. Louis. They did not do any operating in opposition to Yadier Molina and the Cardinals within the wild-card around, however possibly that adjustments within the NLDS in opposition to Atlanta.
Let’s simply say the Phillies don’t seem to be paying Schwarber and Nick Castellanos all that cash as a result of of their nifty glovework. Those nook outfielders were dreadful, no longer in phrases of mistakes (Schwarber had one, Castellanos had none) however in phrases of vary relating to monitoring down fly balls or reducing off grounders ahead of they get to the wall for additonal bases. Hoskins has additionally had a brutal season in the beginning base, “leading” the majors with 12 mistakes.
Starting Pitching: 8.8/10
Even with the aforementioned woeful protection, Zack Wheeler had a 2.82 ERA in 26 regular-season begins ahead of going 6.1 scoreless innings in Game 1 in opposition to the Cardinals. Aaron Nola’s ERA was once 3.25, and he took it one step additional with 6.2 scoreless innings in Game 2. That duo plus Ranger Suárez (2.95 ERA since mid-July) can no less than cling its personal in opposition to the highest 3 in with reference to some other rotation. The No. 4 starter, although—be it Bailey Falter, Noah Syndergaard or Kyle Gibson—generally is a actual journey, although.
Relief Pitching: 7.7/10
A dozen pitchers logged no less than a dozen innings of reduction for the Phillies this season, and the most efficient ERA of the bunch was once David Robertson at 2.70. They did no less than get some nice determine of José Alvarado down the stretch with a nil.43 ERA and a fifteen.2 Ok/9 in his ultimate 21 innings of the steady season. But he then allowed the two-run domestic run to Juan Yepez in Game 1 in St. Louis, so we will see if he can rally. Zach Eflin’s starter-to-closer transition stays an interesting transfer that the Phillies have made out of necessity.
Overall Score: 42.5/50
3 of 8
Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +1300
Batting moderate isn’t Seattle’s strong point. Ty France was once a .355 hitter 50 video games into the season, however he hit .232 the remaining of the best way and nonetheless completed 20 issues forward of everybody no longer named Julio Rodríguez. But France, Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suárez did each and every succeed in 20 domestic runs for a Mariners squad that completed heart of the MLB pack in slugging share.
The M’s have a couple of potent base-stealers in Rodríguez (25) and Dylan Moore (21). Sam Haggerty and Adam Frazier will even get the occasional swipe. And if Jarred Kelenic stays at the roster into the ALDS, he had 5 stolen bases all the way through the steady season and generally is a just right choice as a pinch runner. As an entire, although, Seattle hasn’t been nice about taking further bases and was once just about the definition of league moderate in stolen bases/makes an attempt.
Much like baserunning, Seattle is modestly above moderate within the box. Save for possibly France in the beginning base, no Mariner may be named a finalist for a Gold Glove, and Jesse Winker in left box is the one in particular problematic fielder of the bunch. On the plus facet, they dedicated a complete of 69 mistakes all the way through the steady season, just right for fewest within the AL.
Starting Pitching: 8.4/10
Since buying and selling for Luis Castillo, Seattle’s beginning pitching has been higher. Not exceptional, however higher. Castillo has given them a three.17 ERA, and because the starting of August, Robbie Ray and George Kirby have contributed a 2.98 and 3.18 ERA, respectively. However, Logan Gilbert has had a handful of duds over the last two-plus months, and Marco Gonzales did not make a unmarried scoreless appearances in 32 begins this season. It’s a just right rotation in comparison to the ones squads that did not make the playoffs, however it is arguably the worst a few of the 8 last groups.
Relief Pitching: 9.2/10
Trading for Castillo additionally made Seattle’s bullpen higher, because it bumped Chris Flexen to a reduction function, the place he has a 1.62 ERA. The M’s additionally traded for Matthew Boyd, who has a 1.35 ERA in Seattle. Meanwhile, Andrés Muñoz has been lights-out in recent years, and each Erik Swanson and Matt Brash have made no less than 25 appearances because the starting of August with a sub-2.50 ERA. This bullpen loaded with the furthest factor from family names has turn out to be Seattle’s second-biggest power in the back of Rodríguez, Suárez and the Big Dumper clubbing domestic runs.
Overall Score: 42.8/50
4 of 8
Cleveland’s José Ramírez (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +1800
There’s no longer a lot energy on this lineup. José Ramírez led the best way with 29 domestic runs. Josh Naylor (20) and Andrés Giménez (17) had been the one different Guardians to no less than succeed in a dozen. But they did hit .254 as a staff and strike out much less incessantly than some other staff within the majors. They can manufacture runs higher than they confirmed Friday and Saturday.
Speaking of production runs, 5 other Guardians—Ramírez, Giménez, Myles Straw, Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario—stole no less than 18 bases this season. No different staff had no less than 4 gamers succeed in that plateau, in order that’s an outstanding quintet. The explanation why Cleveland will get a 9.5 as an alternative of a ten, although, is the whole lack of a pinch runner to fret about. Ernie Clement led the staff in pinch-running appearances with 14 of them ahead of he was once launched, and he went 0-for-1 in stolen base makes an attempt. So they want one of the ones 5 runners to get himself on base so as to make any have an effect on with their pace.
Defense is the title of the sport for Cleveland. Straw did not homer all season, however he must win a Gold Glove for his paintings in middle box. Similarly, Austin Hedges supplies principally not anything on offense however charges as one of the easier defensive catchers within the league. And then each Giménez and Ramírez are massive property on protection along with being Cleveland’s two highest hitters.
Starting Pitching: 8.7/10
The one-two punch of Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie is rock cast, as demonstrated within the two wins over Tampa Bay. And Cal Quantrill has been each bit as just right of overdue, going 9-0 with a 2.94 ERA because the All-Star Break. The large key for all 3 (and No. 4 starter Aaron Civale) has been retaining walks to a minimal and trusting this protection to do its task. As lengthy as they proceed doing that, they are going to be in just right form.
Relief Pitching: 9.6/10
Closer Emmanuel Clase has been sensational over the last two seasons, however this bullpen is not any one-trick pony. In Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos and James Karinchak, the Guardians have 4 relievers who averaged higher than 10 Ok/9 with an ERA within the 2.05-3.05 vary all the way through the steady season. And within the wild-card around in opposition to the Rays, this bullpen went 10.1 scoreless innings, permitting 4 hits and 3 walks with 13 strikeouts. Not too shabby.
Overall Score: 45.5/50
New York Yankees
5 of 8
New York’s Aaron Judge (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +500
For as much as we’ve been told over the past three months that the Yankees offense is Aaron Judge or bust, they’d still rank top-10 in the majors in home runs even if you completely removed his 62. Anthony Rizzo hit 32. Giancarlo Stanton got 31. Gleyber Torres had 24. And the catching tandem of Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka ended up with 21. There’s a good amount of power here. The real problem is that their non-Judge OBP is .311, so 58 percent of their MLB-best 254 home runs were solo shots.
The Yankees were one of the worst baserunning teams in 2021, but they’ve gotten considerably better in that department despite parting ways with last year’s leader in stolen bases, Tyler Wade. For starters, Judge has been running a lot more, going 16-for-19 in stolen base attempts. Getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa (22 SB) from Texas more than replaced Wade’s contributions as a base-stealer. And assuming Tim Locastro makes the postseason roster almost exclusively to serve as a pinch runner, he’s a major X-factor.
I may not faux to understand how FanGraphs calculates its protection scores, however each at the Fielding tab and within the Defense column of its Batting tab, the Yankees led the majors this season. Baseball Reference additionally provides them a team-wide dWAR of 7.2, in comparison to 3.7 for Los Angeles, 2.6 for Houston and 0.9 for Atlanta. So, I’m inclined to believe my eyes that see this as an excellent defense led by shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa and catcher Jose Trevino. Aaron Hicks is also a plus defender in the outfield, which kept him in the regular lineup even as he was slugging .250 into June.
Starting Pitching: 8.6/10
Of the four teams that received a first-round bye, there’s no question that New York has the iffiest starting rotation. Nestor Cortes has been great, and Luis Severino has been solid when healthy, even throwing seven no-hit innings in his final start of the regular season. But Gerrit Cole has a 4.01 ERA with just one scoreless outing in his last 15 starts, and Jameson Taillon has a 4.76 ERA in 19 starts dating back to late June. If they get past Cleveland in the ALDS, this is where the Yankees figure to be at a disadvantage the rest of the way.
Relief Pitching: 9.3/10
Overall, New York has gotten a 2.97 ERA from its bullpen, with Lou Trivino’s 1.66 ERA since coming over from Oakland (where he had a 6.47 ERA this season) an intriguing surprise. But like the Dodgers, despite great team-wide relief numbers, the closer spot is a great big unknown, likely to be a matchups-based situation where Scott Effross, Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes all factor into the ninth-inning mix. The Yankees have had seven different pitchers record at least one save since the All-Star Break, but none more than four. (And none of the seven were Aroldis Chapman, who was left off the ALDS roster, for what it’s worth.)
Overall Score: 45.2/50
6 of 8
Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (G Fiume/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +380
The primary quintet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Peña and Kyle Tucker is mighty fine. All five batted at least .250 with at least 22 home runs, making Houston and Toronto (four) the only teams in the majors with at least three such qualified hitters this season. Chas McCormick and Aledmys Díaz haven’t been too shabby when they get starts, either. But first base (be it Yuli Gurriel or Trey Mancini) and catcher (be it Martín Maldonado or Christian Vázquez) have been black holes in the order, especially since the All-Star Break.
Tucker and Peña are both solid baserunners. The former steals more bags (25), but the latter rarely makes mistakes and does a good job of taking extra bases when possible. And while Altuve doesn’t steal like he used to from 2012 through 2017, he did go 18-for-19 this season and remains a serious threat. Not much else to worry about, though, and some of the Astros look like they’re running the bases in ankle weights.
Peña racked up 19 errors at shortstop, but he did so with impressive range and a strong overall defensive rating. Maldonado might be the best defensive backstop in the majors. Bregman or Toronto’s Matt Chapman will probably win the Gold Glove among AL third basemen. And as a whole, the Astros rank fourth in the majors in defense, per FanGraphs, closer to the No. 1 Yankees than they are to the No. 5 Guardians.
Starting Pitching: 10/10
The Astros were already loaded with quality starting pitching, but they’ve been on another level since getting Lance McCullers Jr. back in mid-August. They now have four starters with a sub-3.00 ERA in McCullers (2.27), Cristian Javier (2.54), MLB’s leader in quality starts Framber Valdez (2.82) and likely AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (1.75). And if they need to go five deep at any point, Luis Garcia (3.72 ERA, 9.0 K/9) is certainly no slouch.
Relief Pitching: 9.7/10
Overall, Houston relievers have a 2.80 ERA, best in the majors. They also have a 10.45 K/9 that ranks No. 1. Both Ryan Pressly (33 saves) and Rafael Montero (14 saves) can be called upon to get the final few outs. Ryne Stanek (1.15 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (1.94 ERA) have been mostly untouchable in middle relief, too.
Overall Score: 45.9/50
7 of 8
Atlanta’s Austin Riley (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +500
They might not have Ozzie Albies (finger) available at second base, at least for the NLDS. Left field has been a season-long adventure in Atlanta, too. But the Braves have two certified sluggers in Austin Riley and Matt Olson, as well as five others (Dansby Swanson, William Contreras, Michael Harris II, Travis d’Arnaud and Ronald Acuña Jr.) who batted at least .266 and hit at least 15 home runs. Throw in Vaughn Grissom’s .291 average in 41 games played and Eddie Rosario batting .315 since September 11 and this is arguably the strongest starting nine at the dish.
Atlanta has taken the “stars and scrubs” fantasy approach to its baserunning. Acuña and Harris are two of the best in the majors, boasting 29 and 20 stolen bases, respectively, despite both playing in fewer than 120 games. Swanson is also a plus on the basepaths with a career-best 18 swipes this season. But the big key here is that Atlanta took extra bases (going first to third on a single; scoring from first on a double) at the highest rate in the majors.
Swanson is a strong candidate for a Gold Glove at shortstop, Harris has been great in center, and you could do a whole lot worse than Riley at the hot corner. As a whole, though, FanGraphs rated Atlanta’s regular-season defense slightly below average and 11th out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs (ahead of only Philadelphia). It’s mostly because outfielders not named Harris have been mediocre, at best.
Starting Pitching: 9.1/10 with Spencer Strider; 8.2/10 without Strider
Strider last pitched on Sept. 18 because of a side/oblique injury and is questionable for the NLDS because of it. Even without him, Atlanta might be fine. Max Fried has had an exceptional season and would arguably be the NL Cy Young front-runner were it not for Sandy Alcantara. Kyle Wright has also been solid. And after a rough first two months, Charlie Morton has delivered a 3.63 ERA over his last 19 starts. But having the mustachioed rookie strikeout machine would elevate Atlanta’s starting rotation from a C+ to an A-.
Relief Pitching: 9.5/10
Atlanta fans don’t have much faith in closer Kenley Jansen’s NL-best 41 saves, as he got there with a 3.38 ERA, allowing a few too many walks and home runs. But the combined force of Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh, Dylan Lee and Jesse Chavez has been doggone impressive
Overall Score: 46.0/50 with Strider; 45.1/50 without Strider
Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 8
Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw (Harry How/Getty Images)
World Series Odds: +310
Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman atop the order is a murderer’s row for opposing pitchers. And it’s not like the Dodgers relent much from there. Of the 11 Dodgers to make at least 200 plate appearances, nine had an on-base percentage north of .320. Even the two exceptions to the rule (Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor) each got to double digits in home runs and stolen bases. Not only is the starting nine great, but they’ll have multiple legitimate hitters available off the bench.
With a run differential of plus-334 on the season, Los Angeles didn’t have much reason to get aggressive on the basepaths. Still, five Dodgers—Trea Turner (27), Cody Bellinger (14), Freddie Freeman (13), Mookie Betts (12) and Chris Taylor (10)—reached double digits in stolen bases. Gavin Lux and Trayce Thompson also have decent speed. And if rookie Miguel Vargas makes the postseason roster, he had 16 stolen bases at Triple-A this season and would probably be their primary pinch runner.
Both Austin Barnes and Will Smith are strong behind the plate. Trea Turner is rock solid at short, as are Cody Bellinger in center and Mookie Betts in right. Chris Taylor and Max Muncy can each fluently play multiple positions. And Freddie Freeman is certainly no slouch at first, having won a Gold Glove in 2018. There’s a reason Los Angeles allowed fewer runs than any other team this season.
Starting Pitching: 9.6/10
Ten different pitchers started at least six games this season for the Dodgers, which is a testament to how banged up this rotation has been. But it looks like it’ll be Julio Urías (2.16 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (2.28), Tyler Anderson (2.57) and Andrew Heaney (3.10) as the main four heading into the NLDS, which is quite the gauntlet of southpaws for opponents to endure.
Relief Pitching: 9.5/10
Much was made of Craig Kimbrel’s season-long struggles in the closer role, and we simply can’t go higher than a 9.5 in the relief department for a team without an actual closer. But seven of the 10 Dodgers pitchers to make at least 25 relief appearances this season did so with an ERA of 2.45 or better, led by Evan Phillips logging 63 innings with a 1.14 ERA. There has also been talk of Tony Gonsolin (2.14 ERA in 24 starts) possibly serving in a relief role after his recent return from the IL, which would boost this already stellar bullpen even more.
Overall Score: 47.9/50