Hitter Auction Calculator Awards: The Exceeds Expectations Award

To qualify for this positively made-up award, a participant will have to have earned no less than $5 by way of the tip of the season and collected no less than $5 greater than anticipated. This question good judgment lets in for gamers who we already knew could be excellent, however we simply didn’t know could be this excellent.

Finalists: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman

Finalist #1: Paul Goldschmidt, Projected: $19, Earned: $34

The guy hasn’t ever in reality been dangerous, however if you happen to had light him for your scores headed into his age 35 season because of one of the crucial dips witnessed in 2o21, it’s most likely that nobody gave you a troublesome time.

Goldschmidt Rolling wOBA

If you didn’t fade, you got here out with a participant who exceeded his z-scores in each and every unmarried class with the exception of stolen bases, however even his stolen base price was once just about reasonable with 7 at the yr. Here’s a have a look at his projected and earned price:

Paul Goldschmidt 2022 Value

Value POS ADP PA mAVG mRBI mR mSB mHR Dollars
Steamer Projected 1B 47.6 675 $2.78 $2.35 $3.76 -$0.30 $2.16 $18.77
Steamer YTD 1B/DH 47.6 651 $7.35 $7.29 $6.02 -$0.48 $5.17 $33.79

*Steamer Projections

Goldschmidt has little or no in his abilities profile that might point out an age decline. There is infrequently anything else that has long gone thru important exchange or deviation from his profession averages. Simply put, he has been probably the most secure and productive delusion gamers in historical past and if you happen to had him to your workforce, you had been most likely one of the most height groups for your league.

Finalist #2: Freddie Freeman, Projected: $26, Earned: $33

Freeman was once the twelfth most respected participant indexed at the preseason public sale calculator (steamer, default settings) and the fourth easiest participant with 2022 YTD settings. It must now not be a marvel that he completed as a top-five hitter, but when you were given Freeman and also you didn’t overpay, you generated some excellent price. There was once little or no time this season that Freeman’s 15-game rolling wRC+ was once under 100.

Freeman Rolling wRC+

Freeman outperformed his z-scores in each and every class except for for house runs. He was once projected for 32 and he best hit 21. While his HR/FB charge might point out that he was once unfortunate, his HardHit% declined this season and has been declining over the span of the closing 4 seasons. Freeman ended the yr with a 12% HR/FB whilst the league averaged 11.4%:

Freeman HR/FB and HardHit%

Freddie Freeman 2022 Value

Value ADP PA mAVG mRBI mR mSB mHR Dollars
Steamer Projected 17.9 675 $6.24 $3.77 $5.84 -$0.56 $2.66 $25.97
Steamer YTD 17.9 704 $8.69 $4.68 $7.62 $1.61 $0.30 $31.33

*Steamer Projections

…and the award is going to…

Finalist #3: Aaron Judge, Projected: $27, Earned: $55

Aaron Judge 2022 Value

Value ADP PA mAVG mRBI mR mSB mHR Dollars
Steamer Projected 35.4 665 $2.43 $5.53 $4.89 -$0.94 $6.17 $27.03
Steamer YTD 35.4 696 $6.56 $9.74 $10.34 $2.65 $13.95 $54.86

*Steamer Projections

Are you shocked? Judge was once slept in this season. I write that figuring out his ADP was once within the 3rd spherical, however I feel many delusion managers had been hesitant because of his harm historical past. Sure, Judge outperformed all of our projection techniques’ house run totals by way of over 20, however did you spot the ones 16 stolen bases?! This was once probably the most dominant delusion seasons by way of a unmarried participant in a very long time. The best participant to return with reference to his end-of-season $55 price was once Miguel Cabrera’s 2014 $44.8 and Mookie Betts‘ 2018 $44.0. That’s simply what occurs whilst you destroy the American League (AL) single-season house run report and make a push for the AL triple crown. It is in reality exceptional what Aaron Judge did this season from a delusion viewpoint. To assume that he will have been a 20-20 participant with best 4 extra steals is moderately mind-boggling. Anyone who rostered Judge was once taking a possibility. Here’s a have a look at his “Five-Year Injury Log” courtesy of Ron Schandler’s 2022 Baseball Forecaster:

18 – 50 days, proper wrist fracture

19 – 62 days strained L indirect

20 – 34 days strained R calf

21 – 12 days COVID-19

Fantasy managers who learned the possible in a wholesome Aaron Judge season most likely gambled and took him early. If you noticed his $27 pre-season projected price and concept, “No, that can’t be right”, and also you tacked on an extra $20, you could possibly have nonetheless underpaid by way of $8. Simply wonderful.

Congratulation to Aaron Judge on an excellent season and to any delusion managers that rostered him. Next week, I’ll check out the entire biggest variations in projections as opposed to earned price with the Nobody Saw You Comin’ Award.

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