Fantasy Football is all concerning the matchups. Even regardless that you drafted your crew with sure hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup choices should not be decided by means of the order you picked your gamers in. You want to examine who your gamers play and you’ll want to’ve were given the best guys in — and the fallacious guys out.
It’s too early to be completely certain on which matchups shall be simple and which of them shall be difficult, however we will take some trained guesses according to wholesome team of workers, defensive schemes, monitor information and key main points of offenses. The issues we know can lend a hand us decrease the have an effect on of the issues we do not know. This will have to lead to higher choices being made.
We’ll undergo every game and spotlight the gamers who don’t seem to be obtrusive begins and sits (since you don’t want to be informed to get started Jonathan Taylor). You will have to really feel extra comfy beginning or sitting gamers according to the ideas given, and feeling comfy together with your Fantasy lineup sooner than the video games get started is the most productive feeling on the planet.
All traces from Caesars Sportsbook.
- WENTZ: Reportedly coping with a bicep damage that would compromise his arm energy.
- COMMANDERS: Still throwing the ball on the third-highest charge this season (66.7%). They nonetheless have not begun to have a game the place they throw underneath 60% of the snaps and just about matched their season-high remaining week with a 70.7% cross charge (and that was once with their run game as sturdy as it would get).
- WENTZ: Predictably, Wentz has been terrible when burdened (-0.44 EPA/dropback, 68.7 QB Rating, 3 touchdowns). He totaled 8 Fantasy issues in each and every game towards the Eagles and Cowboys, either one of which had a cross rush drive on north of 40% in their snaps.
- BEARS: Rank seventh-worst in cross rush drive charge and are tied for third-fewest sacks this season (8). Their absolute best cross rush charge this season was once 38.7% in Week 1 of their monsoon game as opposed to the 49ers (they had been additionally 36.4% towards the Giants).
- BEARS: Have allowed anyplace from 20 to 23 Fantasy issues to 3 of the previous 4 quarterbacks confronted, however that incorporates 3 speeding touchdowns as opposed to 4 passing touchdowns.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
- MCLAURIN: Is moment at the Commanders in objectives (Curtis Samuel has 45) and is 1/3 in receptions (J.D. McKissic has extra). McLaurin is averaging a fab 17.2 yards in step with catch, however he watched Dyami Brown pick out up deep objectives for touchdowns remaining week and Jahan Dotson get fed touchdowns within the 4 video games prior. He’s no longer just about as prioritized as Fantasy managers suppose he will have to be.
- BEARS: Not handiest have they been means higher than anticipated towards broad receivers (Tenth in Fantasy issues in step with game allowed), however they have allowed a 58.7% crowning glory charge particularly to outdoor receivers with simply 5 completions of 20-plus yards given up. The handiest broad receiver to get 15-plus PPR issues towards Chicago this season is Justin Jefferson (on 13 objectives).
- SAMUEL: You can have already learn that Samuel leads the Commanders in objectives (9.0 in step with game), however he additionally leads them in receptions (6.4 in step with game), red-zone objectives (4) and catches for first downs (17).
- SAMUEL: Continues to dominate slot snaps for the Commanders close to the road of scrimmage, regardless that he did reel in an improbable 32-yard bomb from Wentz remaining week. Samuel’s ADOT (common intensity of goal) in his previous two video games is 7.53, which is not a lot however greater than double from his first 3 video games. It’s an indication his function is evolving.
- BEARS: Struggle particularly with slot cornerbacks, giving up an 81.8% catch charge (fifth-worst), 4.96 yards after catch in step with reception (YAC/reception) and 5 completions of 20-plus yards.
- FALCONS: Rank within the bottom-five in crowning glory charge (68.7%), passing yards (1,391) and cross makes an attempt (201) allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Not unusually, 4 of 5 quarterbacks towards Atlanta have discovered a minimum of 22 Fantasy issues (Jacoby Brissett could not do it). Those similar 4 quarterbacks threw for 270-plus yards each and every.
- FALCONS: Have been thrown at the third-most of somebody in soccer (40.2 cross makes an attempt in step with game). It’s due largely to the Falcons maintaining video games shut. Every game has been determined by means of six issues or fewer.
- GAROPPOLO: Finally clicked remaining week with a 253-2-0 stat line at Carolina. It helped that he performed an inferior protection in contrast to his Week 3 and 4 fighters (Denver, L.A. Rams).
- FALCONS: Have been underneath a 30% cross rush drive charge in 3 of 5 video games together with two in their previous 3. They do not blitz so much (22.3% of snaps, bottom-10) and have 4 sacks over their previous 4 video games.
- MEYERS: Has a wonderful 32.1% goal in step with course run charge, and leads the Patriots in receptions in spite of taking part in two fewer video games than everybody else. He’s averaging 9.0 objectives in step with game.
- MEYERS: Isn’t only a slot man anymore — 5 of his seven catches remaining week got here when he coated up broad. He’s all the time been a cool course runner, however now he is turning into a well-rounded receiver keen to move the center of the sphere and make catches with defenders reducing the increase on him. Or, relating to his landing remaining week, he is in a position to racing previous defenders.
- BROWNS: They’ve performed a pleasing process protecting receivers to a 57.7% catch charge, however they are nonetheless giving up 14.2 yards in step with catch (sixth-worst) and have 11 overlooked tackles on passes (fourth-worst). The Browns may have to move this one with out peak cornerback Denzel Ward, too.
- HUNT: On the season has performed 31 snaps within the purple zone with 18 touches and two ratings. Nick Chubb has performed just a little extra however has two times as many touchdowns. Inside the ten backyard line, Hunt has 8 touches on 15 snaps.
- HUNT: Touches by means of week: 12, 14, 15, 15, 15. That’s just right. Scrimmage yards by means of week: 70, 74, 61, 68, 57. That’s no longer so just right and for sure going within the fallacious course.
- PATRIOTS: Have but to permit a landing to a working again. They’re just a little higher than league common in rush yards in step with raise allowed to RBs (4.34) however they are top-10 in yards after touch allowed and have the fewest overlooked tackles on working again runs (8).
- PATRIOTS: Drill deeper into their red-zone run protection and they have got a defensive rush good fortune charge of 87.5% (second-best in soccer). However, they have noticed handiest 8 red-zone rushes and none from the objective line.
- PACKERS: Have performed the sixth-most zone protection this yr (75.5%) and have in point of fact handiest dipped their ft into extra guy protection during the last few weeks. I be expecting the Packers to play a large number of zone this week in order to no longer surrender giant performs, in contrast to the Dolphins who performed a ton of guy remaining week towards the Jets and were given stung.
- DAVIS: Has been the best receiver via two video games with Zach Wilson towards zone protection. He’s noticed the absolute best goal in step with course run charge (26.1%), had the absolute best catch charge (83%) and has the most productive receiving common (17.0) in comparison to Elijah Moore and particularly Garrett Wilson.
- DAVIS: Is tied for the crew lead in goal percentage (18.5%) with Wilson however leads Jets receivers in catch charge (70%), yards in step with catch (16.0) and explosive play charge (40%). While those stats are encouraging, a majority of these numbers got here in Week 4 towards Pittsburgh, no longer remaining week within the Jets’ runaway win as opposed to Miami.
- PACKERS: Not handiest have allowed the absolute best catch charge to broad receivers at the season (77.6%) however have given up a ludicrous 87.5% catch charge during the last two weeks towards Bailey Zappe and Daniel Jones. Furthermore, the Packers have afforded 13 completions of 20-plus yards at the yr, Tenth-most (4 of their previous two video games).
- PACKERS: To be honest, the Packers do higher in yards in step with catch allowed (11.6 ranks fifth-lowest) and are simply worse than league common in YAC/reception (4.58).
- JETS: Play the third-most zone protection within the league, which is not a wonder given Robert Saleh’s historical past. They’re most likely to play a large number of Cover-3 and Quarters protection.
- DOUBS: Does have a 23.8% goal in step with course run charge towards zone (in comparison to 15.4% as opposed to guy). He particularly has his absolute best goal in step with course run charge, absolute best receiving common and greatest YAC/reception towards Cover-3.
- PACKERS: Rodgers has averaged 33.6 cross makes an attempt in step with game, the Jets have noticed a median of 30.6 cross makes an attempt in step with game.
- LAFLEUR: Packers head trainer Matt LaFleur lamented no longer working the ball extra remaining week and turns out to be targeted at the floor game this week. That may value all Packers receivers some objectives.
- PACKERS: Coach Matt LaFleur lamented no longer working the ball extra remaining week, telling the media “we’ve got to be – I’m talking to myself – more disciplined in our approach in terms of making sure that they get the necessary touches throughout the course of the game.”
- PACKERS: Called 24 or fewer RB runs in 3 of five video games this season, together with 19 remaining week. The Packers posted 25-plus runs by means of RBs in Week 2 (a blowout win towards the Bears) and Week 4 (an time beyond regulation win over the Patriots).
- DILLON: Saw a season-low six touches remaining week after you have 14-plus in Weeks 1 via 4. It came about to be his best speeding week — 5.67 yards in step with raise. Dillon’s objectives (6, 3, 3, 2, 0) have vanished.
- JETS: Allowed 4.9 yards in step with raise to the Steelers and Dolphins’ working backs during the last two weeks. All 4 speeding touchdowns they have allowed have come within the purple zone. New York has additionally allowed 3.84 yards after touch in step with rush to RBs in the ones two video games, fourth-worst.
- DILLON: Has two fewer touches and one fewer landing than Aaron Jones within the purple zone, however has performed extra snaps (six to two) and noticed extra touches (two to one) within the 5-yard line than Jones.
- HURST: Has 12-plus PPR issues in each and every of his previous two video games.
- HURST: Specifically noticed seven objectives remaining week, an uptick helped by means of Tee Higgins absence in addition to Joe Burrow treating Hurst like a check-down possibility when the cross rush were given to him. The latter may well be much less of a subject matter this week for Burrow because the Saints cross rush hasn’t been anyplace close to as impactful as first concept.
- SAINTS: 8 or fewer half-PPR issues to a good result in every game this yr, however Hurst shall be their greatest problem since Kyle Pitts in Week 1.
- HILL: Has a minimum of 8 PPR issues in 3 of his previous 5 video games. He averaged 6.0 PPR issues in step with game sooner than remaining week.
- HILL: Has but to play greater than a 3rd of the snaps for the Saints this season.
- HILL: Has performed 55 snaps within the 5-yard line in his occupation. He’s had a slightly on 21 of them (38%) and scored 13 instances overall (62% conversion charge). Despite rating 198th in snaps amongst skill-position gamers (RB, WR, TE), he is within the top-50 in touches and top-five in landing conversions.
- BENGALS: On the season towards all positions they have allowed 4.18 yards in step with raise, Eleventh-best within the league. But since shedding giant D-tackle D.J. Reader in Week 3 they have let up 4.75 yards in step with rush and have cratered in yards sooner than (ninth-worst) and after (about league common) touch. Those numbers do come with Lamar Jackson’s 4.8 speeding common in Week 5.
- WORKLOAD: Had his snaps diminished remaining week and did not play within the fourth quarter of a good game. Coach John Harbaugh stated it was once on function.
- DOBBINS: Hasn’t moderately been environment friendly in his go back, averaging 3.9 yards in step with raise with 8 runs of five-plus yards — and six for 0 or unfavourable yards. Since his Week 3 go back, he is fiftieth or worse amongst qualifying working backs in rush common, yards sooner than touch and yards after touch. He’s additionally noticed simply 28 carries.
- DOBBINS: Of his 31 PPR issues, 12 had been from touchdowns (nearly 40%).
- DOBBINS: Did glance just a little higher on movie this week in comparison to remaining — he had an improbable play the place he broke a deal with within the backfield and became a 2-yard loss right into a 12-yard acquire. His steadiness is as just right as ever.
- GIANTS: Among the worst in run protection potency (5.12 yards in step with raise allowed to RBs) however have by some means given up only one speeding rating and are in the course of the pack in Fantasy issues given up to working backs.
- HISTORY: Former Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale is again to face his outdated crew. I’m all the time just a little occupied with a participant’s upside on this scenario since the ex-coordinator practiced towards the offense for years.
- COUSINS: Has struggled towards guy protection this yr (50% crowning glory charge, -0.14 EPA/dropback, 75.9 QB score) in comparison to zone protection (75.8% crowning glory charge, 0.12 EPA/dropback, 94.7 QB score). Has additionally struggled towards the blitz (47.3% crowning glory charge, -0.22 EPA/dropback, 75.2 QB score).
- DOLPHINS: Play the third-most guy protection (42.3%) and blitz on the third-highest charge (38.1%).
- DOLPHINS: Have given up a minimum of 23 Fantasy issues to 3 of the previous 4 QBs they have confronted. That contains massive video games to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in addition to 23 issues to Joe Burrow.
- COUSINS: Has no longer had greater than 23 Fantasy issues in a game this season.
- MOSTERT: Has noticed his taking part in time and touches upward thrust dramatically during the last two weeks. Against the Bengals and Jets he is totaled 33 carries for 182 yards (5.5 yards in step with raise) with a speeding rating and 3 catches for 21 yards.
- VIKINGS: Allow extra Fantasy issues in step with game to working backs than the Bengals and Jets.
- VIKINGS: Average an allowance of four.16 yards in step with rush to RBs this season, however that is weighted closely by means of the 1.9 speeding common Chicago had remaining week. They had been at 4.54 yards in step with raise allowed sooner than then.
- VIKINGS: And even with the run stuffing, they gave up 18 PPR issues to David Montgomery. A rival rusher has a minimum of 11 PPR issues in every game towards them this yr.
- LAST WEEK: It certain felt just like the Jaguars soured on Robinson temporarily; after the primary quarter, Robinson totaled 4 yards on 4 touches. By comparability, Travis Etienne had 48 yards on his first two carries.
- ROBINSON: His pace has been zapped and his elusiveness is not some distance in the back of. To his credit score, he nonetheless has elite imaginative and prescient and energy, however it’s going to stay costing him further yards if his agility can not stay up.
- COLTS: Have held working backs to 3.3 yards in step with raise (1/3 ideally suited) and are top-7 in defensive overall rush EPA, defensive rush good fortune charge and yards sooner than and after touch allowed. They’re tied for ninth-best in overlooked tackles on working again runs.
- ROBINSON: Has noticed his taking part in time drop in each and every of his previous 4 video games.
- HISTORY: Yep, Robinson scored at the Colts again in Week 2. He additionally averaged 2.8 yards in step with raise on 23 carries. He’s averaged 11.7 carries in step with game since.
- BUCCANEERS: Rank top-11 in rush common (4.07), speeding touchdowns (two), rush yards sooner than (1.19) and after (2.90) touch allowed to working backs. They’re additionally 5th in Fantasy issues allowed to rival RBs this season.
- UH OH: Not handiest is Harris a number of the least environment friendly working backs this season, however his backup Jaylen Warren is without doubt one of the best! Warren ranks top-12 amongst qualifying working backs in yards in step with raise (4.95), rush EPA (0.04), rush good fortune charge (47.4%), explosive play charge (10.5%), yards sooner than touch in step with rush (2.21) and first within the league in have shyed away from deal with charge (68.4%). Harris isn’t any higher than thirtieth in any of the ones classes.
- TOMLIN: Spoke this week of constructing adjustments offensively and particularly discussed Warren. “We’ve been playing Jalen increasingly anyway, and I think that’s going to continue,” Tomlin stated. (*6*)
- PICKETT TO PICKENS: For all his troubles connecting with Johnson, there don’t seem to be just about as many problems when it comes to Pickens. The rookie has stuck 10 of 12 objectives for 154 yards on a 19% goal percentage up to now six quarters with Pickett. He’s were given a ludicrous 12.8 yards in step with goal common and the absolute best ADOT (12.08 yards) and explosive play charge (25%) of somebody at the Steelers.
- PICKENS: Has 14-plus PPR issues in each and every of his previous two video games and, technically, 4.2 PPR issues in step with quarter with Pickett. That’s higher than each Johnson (2.3) and Chase Claypool (1.7).
- BUCCANEERRS: Allow a 55.9% catch charge to broad receivers (second-best in the back of the Giants) and are eighth-best in yards in step with catch (11.94). Receiver who line up broad are averaging a 49.3% catch charge (stingiest in soccer) and 10.05 yards in step with catch (second-stingiest).
- BUCCANEERS: Only two receivers have posted 15-plus PPR issues towards the Bucs this yr.
- SMITH: Has 20-plus Fantasy issues in 4 of his remaining 5 and ranks a number of the NFL leaders in TD charge, passing yards, interceptions, QB score and yards in step with try with the No. 1 crowning glory charge (75.2%) amongst qualifiers.
- SMITH: Has been higher towards guy protection than zone however superior towards each. If there is any sensitivity to Smith’s game, it is when he is burdened (59% crowning glory charge, -0.20 EPA/dropback, 85.6 QB score). However, he is handiest been burdened on simply 44 of 157 cross makes an attempt (10 got here towards the 49ers).
- CARDINALS: Typically play a large number of zone protection, and have blitzed on the fourth-highest charge (38%) however are handiest twenty second in cross rush drive charge, which is not just right given their blitz dispositions.
- SEAHAWKS: Allowed a 35.5% drive charge in 3 of five video games this yr together with a 36.7% charge remaining week at New Orleans. That did not in point of fact sluggish Smith down.
- WALKER: Displayed superior cutback, imaginative and prescient and burst on his great 69-yard landing run remaining week at New Orleans. NFL Next Gen Stats clocked him at 20.93 mph on that run.
- WALKER: Displayed hesitancy on a lot of his 22 different runs this yr, main to 15 carries of three or fewer yards.
- SEAHAWKS: As a crew, the working backs rank first in rush EPA, rush yards in step with raise (6.08), moment in yards sooner than touch in step with rush, 5th in yards after touch in step with rush and 5th in 12-plus-yard runs (12-plus yards). But maximum of that good fortune got here towards the Lions
- WALKER: Has performed simply 9 1/3/fourth-down snaps this yr, six of which can be thought to be third-and-short. He’s very most likely to get replaced at the box in obtrusive passing-down scenarios by means of DeeJay Dallas this week.
- WALKER: Has particularly thrived on runs between the tackles (8.9 yards in step with raise with a lot of that approaching his landing remaining week). By comparability, Walker is averaging 2.9 yards in step with run on edge runs.
- CARDINALS: Fortunately for Walker, the Cardinals have allowed extra yards in step with raise on between-the-tackle runs (4.5 and 1.51 yards sooner than touch, each bottom-13) than on edge runs (3.76 yards in step with raise, 0.76 yards sooner than touch, each top-10).
- CARDINALS: While they have struggled protecting working backs by means of the cross, they have held Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, Christian McCaffrey and Miles Sanders to a not-too-bad 4.2 yards in step with rush with one speeding rating between them. Arizona has overlooked simply 13 tackles on working again rushes this season, sixth-best within the league.
- MOORE: We’ve already noticed the Panthers start to name Moore’s quantity extra in recent times (19 objectives in his previous two in comparison to 18 in his first 3 video games). Unfortunately it hasn’t led to a spice up in his different stats — he is had 11 or fewer PPR issues in each and every of his previous two.
- WALKER: New Panthers quarterback P.J. Walker threw seven objectives at D.J. Moore in his one get started remaining yr for an unpleasant 4-24-0 stat line. That’s no longer encouraging.
- WALKER: Has an NFL occupation 57% crowning glory charge with a 1.6% TD charge. It’s a some distance cry from the 64.7% crowning glory charge and 8.2% TD charge he had in 5 XFL video games. Walker’s occupation numbers don’t seem to be a significant growth over Baker Mayfield’s 2022 stats.
- RAMS: Are bottom-three in catch charge and YAC/receptions allowed to broad receivers. Rams are giving up 12.01 yards in step with catch to wideouts.
- RAMS: At least one receiver has 10 PPR issues in each and every game towards them. OK, positive, that isn’t particular however it does set a gentle expectation for Moore. You may like this stat higher: the highest receiver for each and every opponent till Week 5 had a minimum of 24 PPR (and 14 non-PPR) issues.
- WALKER: In Walker’s lone get started in 2021 he focused Anderson six instances for a 4-37-1 stat line. If you cobble in combination all of Walker’s different taking part in time from 2021, Anderson led all Panthers with a 27.7% goal percentage and an 8-95-1 collab. Half of the catches went for a minimum of 15 yards.
- ANDERSON: Has been moment at the crew in goal percentage this season with 17.6%. He additionally has a 48% catch charge, which is not some distance from his catch charge with Walker remaining yr … however nonetheless upper than D.J. Moore’s this yr.
- RAMS: Of the 11 cross performs of 20-plus yards allowed this yr, 9 have long past to outdoor receivers. L.A. has additionally allowed a 69% catch charge, a 14.35 receiving common and 6.29 YAC/reception to outdoor wideouts this yr. The catch charge and YAC/reception are bottom-3.
- ANDERSON: Has performed 88% of his snaps out broad.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decicision)
- SINGLETARY: Has performed the Chiefs 4 instances up to now two seasons and has single-digit Fantasy issues in each and every game.
- CHIEFS: Have been smashed by means of Josh Jacobs (21-154-1) and Leonard Fournette (7-57-1 receiving with a speeding landing) in consecutive video games.
- SINGLETARY: Had 15 touches in aggressive video games towards the Dolphins and Ravens, however averaged 8.3 touches in blowout Bills wins. The Bills are three-point street favorites in what is anticipated to be a high-scoring matchup.
- CHIEFS: I’ve written a host about how the Chiefs use explicit receivers according to the protection they see — guy protection (Mecole Hardman) and zone protection (JuJu Smith-Schuster). But Valdes-Scantling is the one broad receiver they have got who has been similarly forged towards each coverages.
- VALDES-SCANTLING: Has a quite upper goal in step with course run charge (18.5%) and considerably upper receiving common (14.2) towards zone protection than guy, plus his catch charge as opposed to zone is 76.5%, a lot upper than as opposed to guy (46.2%).
- BILLS: Have been a zone-heavy squad for so long as Sean McDermott has been their trainer. No wonder, they have performed the third-highest share of zone snaps this season. They’ve additionally performed zone a minimum of 69.6% of snaps in 3 in their 4 video games towards the Bills since 2020 — the only time they performed much less zone they misplaced by means of two touchdowns within the 2020 playoffs.
- ELLIOTT: Has 81 or fewer overall yards in every game this season. Has single-digit PPR issues in 4 of five video games. Has been underneath 4.0 yards in step with raise in 3 of his previous 4 video games.
- MATCHUP: Has no longer scored in 5 of his previous 6 towards the Eagles with handiest two with over 100 overall yards.
- EAGLES: Since Week 2, the Eagles have yielded 3.78 yards in step with raise to working backs with handiest two touchdowns allowed. They’ve particularly been nice in yards after touch in step with raise (2.47, third-best) and in overlooked tackles on runs (9, third-fewest).
- WILSON: It takes two eyeballs to know issues don’t seem to be proper with Wilson. Last week I counted seven off-target throws (3 to Jerry Jeudy), six performs the place Wilson will have to have thrown to an open goal however held the ball as a substitute, and many, many moments the place the Colts’ cross rush was once impacting Wilson’s play.
- CHARGERS: Since Joey Bosa left within the first quarter of Week 3, the Chargers have allowed a 70.3% crowning glory charge, 7.01 yards in step with cross try and six passing touchdowns towards Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills and Jacoby Brissett. Their cross rush drive charge has slid to 28.7% (the season-long league-average is 32.2%).
- CHARGERS: Since Joey Bosa left within the first quarter of Week 3, the Chargers have allowed only one quarterback to put up greater than 17 Fantasy issues.
- WILSON: Has had fewer than 17 Fantasy issues in 3 of his previous 4 begins.