NFL Week 3 picks: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Bills thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

I used to be going to start out issues off right here via making amusing of the Browns for his or her large choke task towards the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an similarly giant choke task in Week 2: I went 5-11 towards the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is largely the similar factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her sport. That factor has cursed the group and my choices. If you’ve gotten ever observed “The Ring,” the similar factor occurs while you have a look at Brownie the elf, with the exception of you do not die, you simply get your choices improper. 

The just right information for me is that I do not imagine in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I must be simply advantageous making my choices this week. Although I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Speaking of the choices, let’s get to them.

Actually, ahead of we get to the choices, here is a fast reminder that you’ll take a look at the weekly choices from each and every NFL knowledgeable via clicking right here. I am getting 2.3 cents each and every time any individual clicks thru on that hyperlink, so you’ll want to click on early and incessantly. Actually, that isn’t true, I believe the cash in reality simply is going to the price range CBS has allocated for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Speaking of Brinson, he is the host of the Pick Six Podcast, and simply in case I have not made it transparent over the last two weeks, I’ll be becoming a member of him 3 days a week at the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Even even though I’m best on 3 days a week, there is a new episode each and every unmarried day from Monday thru Friday and also you must attempt to pay attention as incessantly as conceivable (You can pay attention to Tuesday’s episode beneath and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the choices. 

NFL Week 3 choices

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

If I’ve spotted something concerning the Steelers this season, it is that they mainly display up each and every week without a offensive sport plan after which make it up as they cross alongside. Not strangely, this hasn’t been figuring out neatly for them thus far and I believe persons are beginning to understand. I imply, now we have slightly performed two weeks and avid gamers are already beginning to bitch concerning the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have not learn critiques that unhealthy since “The Emoji Movie” got here out. At the velocity he is going, Matt Canada could be training in Canada via the top of the season. You know issues are going badly when a shop is the usage of your title to check out and get fanatics under the influence of alcohol. 

I’ll have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The something about this sport is that I do not know which group goes to dance again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced via 3 to the Patriots thank you largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the general 90 seconds, which I assume mustn’t in reality have surprised me in any respect since no NFL group is best than the Browns at discovering unbelievable techniques to lose. 

The Browns had the type of emotional loss that may end up in a letdown the next week and I believe we would possibly see that on this sport. That being stated, even though the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not just right sufficient to make the most of it. Through two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of the ones sport had been made up our minds via 3 issues or much less, so clearly, I can no longer be predicting a blowout, however I can be predicting an dissatisfied. 

The select: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills

I do not know the way it took place, however this sport is one way or the other the one one at the time table this week that may function two undefeated groups enjoying towards every different. I’m no longer normally one to inform folks what to do with their lives, however when you have plans with any individual at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, you must no doubt cancel the ones plans so you’ll watch this sport. Well, until you are appearing open middle surgical operation on a cat or choosing up your infant at a celebration or taking your grandma to play BINGO. If the ones are your plans, please do not cancel the ones. I might really feel terrible if grandma ignored BINGO since you listened to a couple man who went 5-11 ATS together with his choices final week. To be fair, I more than likely can have made extra money enjoying BINGO in Week 2. 

Anyway, I’ve been looking at the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless do not know what to make of them. I do suppose that they are no doubt just right, however I’m simply no longer certain how just right. Sure, they have scored 8 touchdowns in simply two video games, however part of the ones got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns towards Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they have best scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens group that had a nasty protection and a Patriots group that had a nasty offense, so what is going to occur once they play a Bills group that isn’t unhealthy at both of the ones issues? It’s more than likely no longer going to finish neatly for the Dolphins. 

The different drawback for the Dolphin is they all the time appear to fight towards Josh Allen. The Bills have received seven directly video games on this competition and the ones seven wins have come via a median of nineteen.3 issues in keeping with sport. Josh Allen has thrown more than one landing passes in each and every sport he is ever performed towards the Dolphins, which no doubt is not just right information for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel towards positive groups. We’ve observed Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Bills, now we are seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I believe that domination continues on Sunday. 

The select: Bills 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Green Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I’m best bringing up, as a result of getting this sport moved to South America is more than likely Rodgers’ perfect likelihood at profitable this week. If he cannot pull that off, that implies he will need to play in Florida and if there may be something I find out about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates enjoying within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of 8 video games in his occupation in Florida and he is long past 3-5 in the ones video games. Even worse, because the get started of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in the ones two video games, which is insane while you imagine that he is best thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed out of doors of Florida. For the ones of you who hate math, that is two interceptions in keeping with sport in Florida and zero.2 when enjoying out of doors of Florida. He is actually throwing interceptions at a ten occasions upper fee in Florida than he does at another time. It is unnecessary, which I assume more or less is smart, as a result of not anything in Florida is smart. I imply, we are speaking a few state the place a man is attempting to wreck the arena report for greatest number of “Titanic” films. 

And no, that tweet isn’t relating to me. I best have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is no doubt no longer the arena report. 

Anyway, when you’ve ever been to Florida in September, you will have spotted that the air is so thick that you’re feeling like you are respiring out of a straw full of maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… You know what, I’ll simply let Gronk provide an explanation for how a lot you sweat. 

Also, let’s no longer omit about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from enjoying faculty soccer in California to enjoying skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means in reality needed to take care of Florida climate and I’m beginning to suppose he would possibly in reality hate it, which might provide an explanation for why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. On the opposite hand, the Buccaneers apply in that climate each day, so I’m guessing they are used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you’ll listen about is how this sport is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the larger matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. prime humidity and I’m taking prime humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time towards Brady and I believe he would possibly have a fair worse report towards prime humidity. 

I must additionally be aware that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted every different because the NFC identify sport in January 2021. If you do not keep in mind that sport, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably made up our minds to kick a box objective with two mins left in a sport the place the Packers have been down 8. 

It’s been just about two years since that took place and I nonetheless cannot determine why he tried that box objective. The best factor that is smart for me this is to take Buccaneers via a box objective. 

The select: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Latest Odds:

Denver Broncos

I do know we are best two video games into the season, however I’ve already observed sufficient of the Broncos offense this 12 months to grasp that Russell Wilson throwing the ball does not in reality appear to be running. Whenever Wilson drops again to cross, I’ve spotted that one in every of 3 issues turns out to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete cross or the play is blown lifeless since the Broncos get referred to as for a lengthen of sport. 

As you almost certainly spotted, all of the ones issues are unhealthy. If any individual instructed me I used to be going to be hit via a bus, shot within the arm or stung via a hive of fatal bees each and every time I left my space, I might NEVER depart my space. If you are questioning what my bizarre situation has to do with anything else, I believe what I’m pronouncing is that the Broncos can keep away from having 3 unhealthy choices via NOT throwing the ball always. That is their model of no longer leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not subject as a result of he best were given 15 carries within the sport. Instead of feeding Javonte, they made up our minds to let Wilson stay throwing the ball, which isn’t superb when your QB is best finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did towards the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to appear to be Pete Carroll would possibly had been proper about the whole lot. He put a robust working sport and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the group and it could be time for the Broncos to scouse borrow that concept. Instead of going with the “Let Russ Cook” philosophy, the Broncos would possibly wish to get started embracing the “Let Russ help in the kitchen, but don’t let him cook by himself” philosophy. Basically, the Broncos must get started working the ball extra and let that open up the cross. 

Although Wilson hasn’t seemed just right in any respect this season, if there may be one group he can flip issues round towards, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 occasions whilst he used to be with the Seahawks and in the ones 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett makes sense, he will return and watch the ones 17 wins to know how the Seahawks have been ready to win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed just right protection. 3. They Let Russ Cook.

Please be aware that letting Russ prepare dinner is indexed final. 

As for the 49ers, they could be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo underneath heart, however I’m no longer certain that applies when they are enjoying AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins towards AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The select: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Latest Odds:

New York Giants

I do not wish to say that this would possibly cross down as the best Monday night time sport of all-time, however I’m beginning to suppose it could be conceivable. It’s the showdown of all showdowns: We have a quarterback who hasn’t ever misplaced a get started in his occupation (Cooper Rush) going up towards a Giants group that is undefeated at the season. 

This sport is the immovable power towards the immovable power and I”m saying that because I don’t think either offense is really going to move the ball very much on Monday night. The Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL and they’ve shown that over the past two weeks by holding both the Buccaneers and Bengals to under 20 points. The Cowboys offense can’t score, but they don’t need to, because their defense is so good. 

As for the Giants, although they’re 2-0, they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in their wins. The Giants are averaging just 20 points per game through two weeks and it’s hard to envision them topping that number since this will likely be the best defense that they’ve faced yet. 

I feel like this game is going to come down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, a big reason the Cowboys lost is because they forgot how to tackle anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers running back averaged 6.05 yards per carry against the Cowboys and if Barkley can get anywhere near that number, it’s going to be a long night for Dallas. 

Something has to give on Monday night: Either Cooper Rush is going to lose his first career game (he’s 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first game of the season, and I can’t believe I’m going to do this, but I’m taking the Giants even though they’ve lost six straight Monday night games and nine of their past 10 to the Cowboys. 

The pick: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the rest

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Last Week

Best select: Last week, I predicted that Tom Brady would in any case beat the Saints and bet what took place? Tom Brady in any case beat the Saints in a normal season sport for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston used to be going to totally soften down via throwing 3 interceptions within the fourth quarter? Of path I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% likelihood he will soften down in the future and there is a 50% likelihood that meltdown goes to return within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, nevertheless it did not occur at the box, it took place at the sideline and the one sufferer used to be an blameless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two directly video games the place Tampa Bay used to be enjoying the Saints, which I imagine is the NFL report for many consecutive video games smashing a pill towards one group. 

Worst select: For some explanation why, I picked the Vikings to overcome the Eagles and I should have forgotten that the sport used to be being performed on a Monday night time as a result of no sane individual would ever select Kirk Cousins to win a sport on Monday night time. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst profitable share in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began no less than 10 Monday night time video games. He used to be 2-9, and after throwing 3 interceptions towards the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Picking Cousins to win in a Monday night time sport is like choosing a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is unnecessary, so do not do it. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU general:18-13-1

Against the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS general: 14-18

You can in finding John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, he is more than likely training for the beef loaf contest he plans on coming into subsequent month. 

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