Fantasy Football Week 3: Trade mailbag, plus five offenses to hit the panic button on

I check out to mission an air of calm via the early a part of the season, as a result of there is not anything to be received from freaking out. I’m attempting to steer you via an unpredictable NFL season, and holding a fab head is a part of the activity.

But, I do not want to give off the sense that I feel not anything we now have noticed via the first two weeks issues. Sure, I’m now not in a position to panic-sell Kyle Pitts or the rest, however I already stated I’m nervous about Derrick Henry, so obviously there is some stuff we now have noticed right here price reacting to. 

Today’s e-newsletter is set attempting to work out what issues to this point, and the way you should utilize that to proceed the on-going means of attempting to construct a championship workforce. You’ll do this via waiver claims, certain, however particularly this week, your workforce more than likely is not going to take some giant step ahead with out swinging a industry. So, I’ve were given Dave Richard’s Trade Values Chart with me to will let you all make some trades — I’ve were given my ideas on a number of trades despatched in by means of readers, listeners, and Twitter fans. 

Plus, I’ve long past via five offenses I’m in fact roughly nervous about via the first couple of weeks of the season. Later this night, in fact, we’re going to have Jamey Eisenberg’s Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em requires you, with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings’ alternatives for Week 3 for you day after today. For now, this is some industry recommendation and a few offenses price worrying about. 

😬Five offenses I’m in fact nervous about

  Jan 9, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Seattle Seahawks vast receiver DK Metcalf (14) all through pregame warmups in opposition to the Arizona Cardinals in the first part at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-Arizona Republic Nfl Seattle Seahawks At Arizona Cardinals
USA TODAY Sports

One workforce I did not write about right here however virtually did is the Patriots. The vibes round them had been beautiful rotten going again to coaching camp after they performed coy about which failed head trainer with little-to-no play-calling enjoy can be calling performs for them — Matt Patricia, because it seems.

But, I had to winnow the record down to five groups I’m nervous about, and the Patriots did not make the reduce for 2 causes: For one, the stakes simply don’t seem to be that prime, as they did not have a unmarried participant drafted within the top-80 in ADP this 12 months; for some other, they did a minimum of display indicators of existence in Week 2 in opposition to an excellent Steelers protection. 

These five offenses? Things had been rotten just about to the core for all five of them, and there don’t seem to be transparent indicators they are going to recover. They may — they will have to — however this is why I’m nervous. 

1. Seattle Seahawks

I assumed the Seahawks can be an attractive unhealthy offense entering the season, and they have got been that roughly — they rank twenty third in yards in step with strive on passes and twenty ninth in yards in step with lift, which is, certainly, beautiful unhealthy. But the reason why I assumed they may well be the worst scoring offense in the NFL used to be as a result of the sloth’s tempo they performed finally season, and they have got in some way controlled to be even worse in the early going. While the reasonable workforce has run 126.3 performs via the first two video games, the Seahawks are sitting at 96, lifeless least in the NFL. They had been final in the league in general offensive performs final season, too, however they are in fact at the back of even that tempo — they averaged 56.1 in step with recreation in 2021, in comparison to simply 48 to this point.

What makes it worse is, for our functions, a minimum of, is the loss of the rest like a transparent hierarchy in both the operating or passing recreation. Tyler Lockett leads the workforce with 15 objectives, whilst DK Metcalf has 13, and I be expecting them to stay extra like a 1a/1b tandem, which goes to make for a irritating cut up. And it may well be even worse in the backfield, as Kenneth Walker made his debut in Week 2 and used to be one in all 3 backs to important enjoying time — Walker performed 24% of the snaps, Rashaad Penny performed 41%, and Travis Homer used to be in on 45%, dealing with most commonly passing downs. 

A nasty offense can nonetheless be helpful for Fantasy, however this one simply looks as if a headache that would possibly not be price the ache. I’m now not viewing any person right here as a beneficial starter at this level. 

2. Chicago Bears

The Bears were given a mulligan for Week 1, enjoying in brutal box stipulations that made it not possible for both offense to do a lot. They do not get one for Week 2, as they threw simply 11 occasions in a recreation they trailed 24-7 at halftime. Through two video games, they have got thrown 28 passes; there were greater than 28 cross makes an attempt in 52 of the 62 different video games to this point. It’s arduous to take an offense keen to do this significantly in 2022.

It implies a surprising loss of religion in Justin Fields, one who I do not believe is completely truthful. If he is truly appeared so unhealthy in follow that you’ll simplest consider him to throw 11 occasions in a recreation the place you are trailing the entire means, then this season is already over and we will more than likely prevent being worried about this offense. Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney don’t seem to be going to get sufficient alternatives to subject, and David Montgomery goes to provide you with 85 speeding yards and not anything else on a nice day.

I’m now not in a position to rattling the Bears to that destiny simply but, however this can be a beautiful dreadful get started. I’m in fact putting in place claims for Kmet in a couple of spots the place he used to be dropped, so I nonetheless suppose there is a trail to Fantasy legitimacy right here, however it wishes to get started with the Bears giving themselves an opportunity. 

3. Carolina Panthers

I gave the Panthers a mulligan after Week 1, a unusual recreation that noticed them fail to execute fundamental such things as snaps in opposition to an excessively tricky Cleveland protection. It’s so much tougher to get a hold of any roughly excuse for Week 2 in opposition to the Giants, and it is arduous now not to draw the conclusion that that is most commonly a training factor. It’s like this training personnel does not in fact know what their gamers are nice at, and one stat I exposed doing analysis Tuesday highlighted that: Between 2020 and 2021, Robbie Anderson had 48 yards on 18 objectives on WR displays. D.J. Moore had 96 yards on 17 objectives.

Another instance: Christian McCaffrey’s snap proportion rose from 81% to 91% in Week 2, however his course participation dropped from 75% to 67% — as Ben Gretch put it in his Stealing Signals e-newsletter, “They treated the best receiving RB of a generation, and in the discussion for best receiving RB of all time, as a guy to give a breather to on the all-important passing downs.” 

Not to give Baker Mayfield (or Sam Darnold or Teddy Bridgewater) a cross, however perhaps the factor here’s that they are doing such things as drawing up performs for Shi Smith, who has 14 yards on 9 objectives, reasonably than giving the ball to McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. I will be able to simplest suppose they will prevent attempting to be so lovely and have their two studs, however it won’t occur till Matt Rhule is already long past. There’s a nice reason why he has the absolute best odds to be the first trainer fired. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

Here’s a reminder: It can at all times worsen. Or, reasonably, it does not essentially have to recover. We concept Mitchell Trubisky can be an improve over what Ben Roethlisberger has given the Steelers over the previous couple of seasons, however that simply hasn’t been the case to this point — whilst it is true that Trubisky has been extra keen to take pictures down the box than Roethlisberger used to be, he hasn’t been in a position to hit on them. In truth, his 20% bad-throw fee to this point can be the absolute best of his occupation — a occupation that has now not, you are going to recall, been outlined by means of high-level efficiency as a passer.

I’ve the Steelers rather low right here simplest as a result of they do a minimum of have a probably promising choice at QB in rookie Kenny Picketts. There’s no doubting the pass-catching ability right here, and if Trubisky continues to fight, I’d want to see Picketts get an opportunity. It used to be price seeing if Trubisky discovered one thing enjoying at the back of Josh Allen, however he looks as if the similar man he did in Chicago. If that does not alternate quickly, with a bit of luck the Steelers would possibly not be afraid to pull the plug — and, for what it is price, they have got were given time beyond regulation to prep sooner than a Week 4 house recreation after this Thursday’s recreation. Nudge-nudge, wink-wink. 

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Much used to be made final season about the re-emergence of the Cover-2 protection as a reaction to high-octane, downfield-oriented passing offenses, and no workforce has confronted extra two-safety appears via two video games than the Bengals. That is sensible, for the reason that their 12 cross performs of fifty or extra yards in 2021 had been the maximum in the league final season. It is sensible to check out to remove what the Bengals had been so nice finally season, and the Cowboys had been particularly efficient in that regard in Week 2 — the Bengals tried simply two passes 20-plus yards down the box, either one of which fell incomplete.

That would not be one of these giant worry if it wasn’t for the undeniable fact that the Bengals rebuilt offensive line hasn’t appeared able to keeping up but, both. Joe Burrow has already been sacked 13 occasions in spite of the truth that they have confronted a four-man rush on extra performs than some other workforce in the league. Burrow tends to grasp on to the ball too lengthy to check out to make performs, and his pocket consciousness stays a piece in growth. When Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are getting open down the box, this may also be an asset; when groups are removing the over-the-top recreation, it will turn into a legal responsibility.

Now, it is price noting that there will not be many groups able to producing power with just a four-man rush the means the J.J. Watt- and Micah Parsons-led Steelers and Cowboys can. It’s completely conceivable the Bengals pop out in opposition to the Jets and lightweight it up and we omit all about this. But I had to come with one in fact (more than likely)-good offense right here, and the first two weeks have proven a components for a way to gradual this offense down. Let’s see if any person else can repeat it. 

We were given an e mail from an FFT listener named Tyler that confirmed an outstanding quantity of self-reflection, and I’d like to proportion it with you: 

“I have somehow squeaked out wins both weeks so far to be one of the only undefeated teams in the league. However, I am near the bottom when it comes to points scored and points against. I clearly deserve the wins because I got them, but I am curious to know how one should proceed in this sort of situation. Usually, I am not very aggressive in waivers or trading, and I think that is where my seasons usually falter.”

Knowing your weaknesses is a power, Tyler. And acknowledging that, even a 2-0 workforce wishes assist is a superb factor. The factor about getting wins you “don’t deserve,” is, you’ve got banked the ones wins. They depend, they usually make it more straightforward to make the playoffs in the long term. However, additionally it is true that, in case you are simply getting fortunate with the time table, in the end that’ll run out. Regardless of your report, you need a nice workforce.

Tyler, you will have to be taking a look to make trades at this time. Take benefit of your schedule-assisted edge to take some dangers on “riskier” gamers — pass out and purchase low on Kyle Pitts or Derrick Henry if you do not suppose the guys you have got can get it completed. Maybe Pitts or Henry will be unable to both in the long term, however taking a flier on upside is healthier than status pat with a workforce you do not imagine in. 

Now, let’s get to the industry mailbag. Every Wednesday on this area, I’ll be answering your industry questions, providing you with Dave Richard’s industry chart’s spin in addition to how I’d manner the offers. If you need your industry questions responded, ship them over to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the topic line “#AskFFT” and I’ll make sure that they get responded subsequent week:

@filpaik: Alvin Kamara for Leonard Fournette? Kamara for Austin Ekeler? Mike Williams for A.J. Brown or Ceedee Lamb? Kamara+M. Williams for Cooper Kupp? Kamara+DJ Moore for Justin Jefferson? Anyone else? PPR. Thank you! (I roster Kamara, M. Williams & Moore). 

  • What the industry chart says: Ekeler > Kamara > Fournette. Kamara + Williams > Kupp. Kamara + Moore > Jefferson.
  • What I say: So, I am getting the feeling you need to industry Alvin Kamara, do I’ve that proper? I at all times fight with the same-position industry concepts, particularly when they’re gamers in the similar tier, and I feel Fournette, Kamara, and Ekeler are all in the similar tier. Kamara may have extra upside than both, however it is arduous to understand how a lot of his restricted function in Week 1 – he ran routes on fewer than part of the cross performs for the Saints – used to be as a result of the rib harm that stored him out of Sunday’s recreation as smartly. Kamara already has that rib harm operating in opposition to him, and sufficient questions on how he suits in a Saints offense with extra goal festival than in years previous that I feel it is fantastic to promote him for gamers in the similar tier, just because it is recently more straightforward to get a hold of tactics for issues to pass unsuitable for him than for Ekeler or Fournette. So, I feel the ones trades are fantastic. I do not love the Kamara-plus offers as a lot, as a result of I feel there is a first rate likelihood Kamara is as nice as Kupp or Jefferson when wholesome – or, a minimum of shut sufficient to make it now not price throwing in a possible top-12 WR on height of that.

@chiliconsarnit: Looking to get Mike Evans for Terry McLaurin & Antonio Gibson. I may just be offering McLaurin & James Robinson as a substitute, however now not certain that is nice price for me.

  • What the industry chart says: Giving up 29, getting 21.
  • What I say: The Trade Chart has Robinson forward of Gibson, however I’d for my part glance to promote Robinson. He’s been a super tale, however I assumed his top-end pace appeared beautiful unhealthy on his 37-yard landing run in Week 2, and he had simply 27 yards on 22 different carries in that recreation. I feel he is the higher Fantasy again of the Jaguars duo at this time, however between the possibility of re-injury and simply shedding enjoying time if Etienne begins to outplay him, I feel there is kind of equivalent possibility for Robinson shedding important snaps as there may be for Gibson. That being stated, I’m fantastic with both model of this industry, as a result of I’m now not certain I view McLaurin as a top-30 WR at this time. He’s were given excessive weekly upside, however I roughly view him like a deficient guy’s model of Evans – he will be increase or bust relying on whether or not he hits an extended play or landing with the emergence of Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson. So, I feel this can be a fantastic industry regardless of which RB you progress.

@Jbusch55: Marquise Brown + Jeff Wilson for James Conner

  • What the industry chart says: Giving up 18, getting 18. 
  • What I say: Assuming Conner’s ankle is fine, I feel this can be a beautiful nice industry for you. It’s a vintage consolidation industry, transferring two cast starters to get one man who will with a bit of luck be a distinction maker. Conner hasn’t been nice to this point, however the passing recreation utilization – 10 objectives in seven quarters of soccer, roughly – is a brilliant signal, for the reason that we already know he is a nice guess for touchdowns on this offense. I do not believe Eno Benjamin nor Darrel Williams is truly a possibility to take touches from Conner if he’s wholesome, so he is his simplest actual impediment to doable top-12 price. I love Brown so much, however he hasn’t taken the bounce I anticipated to this point, and remains to be appearing indicators of suffering to flip an attractive treasured function into precise issues. He’s a nice participant, however perhaps now not a super one. I feel Conner might be, so long as he can keep wholesome, and I love to guess on that.  

@FFPlayer44: Michael Thomas for Leonard Fournette? The industry chart presentations it as even, however is it a promote excessive on Thomas and Buy Low on Fournette?

  • What the industry chart says: Giving up 24, getting 24. 
  • What I say: I feel I’d reasonably have Fournette than Thomas, and there is a first rate case to be made that Thomas is a sell-high coming off 3 touchdowns in two video games – even at his absolute best, his occupation excessive for touchdowns is 9. That’s now not to say you have got to and even will have to industry Thomas, as a result of I do view him as a borderline top-12 WR transferring ahead. However, there is at all times the harm possibility with a participant who has neglected consecutive seasons (necessarily) with an ankle harm, and the emergence of Chris Olave does probably give Thomas extra goal festival than he is ever had. Thomas goes to be a goal hog regardless of how lengthy he is wholesome, but when Olave clicks, it may well be harder for Thomas to release that weekly ceiling that he had when he used to be garnering double-digit objectives each and every day out.

@gamercow: My Ezekiel Elliot for J.Ok. Dobbins to stash for now? I’ve Chubb and Sanders as my starters.

  • What the industry chart says: Giving up 12, getting 11. 
  • What I say: The thought right here can be that you are buying and selling the relative safety of Elliott’s locked-in function in the close to time period for the longer-term upside of Dobbins, and I feel there is some sense to that. Elliott has a rather excessive flooring as a result of he is going to get 12-15 carries and 2-5 objectives each and every week, however there simply does not appear to be, say, top-12 upside there. But I’m now not certain Dobbins realistically has top-12 upside both. First of all, we have not noticed him in fact play in a recreation coming off his critical knee harm, so we are simply assuming he will achieve his pre-injury shape – an even one, however no ensure. And then there is the undeniable fact that his offense has traditionally at all times cut up carries, and he is not going to get many objectives, so the trail to top-12 manufacturing from Dobbins is a slim one despite the fact that he is 100%. If Gus Edwards is again by means of Week five or six and looks as if himself, he is going to be a thorn in Dobbins’ facet. A wholesome Dobbins is a extra explosive runner than Elliott, however given the possibility, this is not a industry I feel has as a lot upside as you suppose.  

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