The Crow’s Nest: Stuck in the shallows, aka your current Mariners playoff odds

This final week has been difficult, sure, however everybody take a breath and have a look at that teal dot putting difficult at the most sensible of this graph.

The Crow's Nest: Stuck in the shallows, aka your current Mariners playoff odds

FanGraphs

To be truthful, if there have been ever a extra Mariners-y second to start to play their worst baseball of the season, this could be it. A trifling 8 video games clear of clinching their first playoff look in 20 years (thank you to a couple well timed dropping from the White Sox and Orioles), and the Mariners aren’t gliding to the end line such a lot as they’re tripping against it.

Logic mind:The Mariners will nonetheless perhaps make the playoffs. This is ok.

Fan mind: I’m dropping it at the moment!

Please, can the hitting and pitching be excellent at the identical time? We received 14 video games in a row doing that, we must take a look at that once more.

Division Leaders

New York Yankees (91 – 58)

Chance of constructing the postseason: 100% (FG), 100% (538)
Chance of profitable the World Series: 9.7% (FG), 14% (538)

As of these days (September twenty second) the Yankees have clinched a playoff spot. While technically, they may nonetheless finally end up in the Wild Card, it is not possible they don’t finally end up with the department identify. Just like final week, now not a lot to mention right here. They appear now to be operating on all cylinders after a scare towards the Pirates and shedding two to the Brewers over the weekend. They nonetheless took two wins off of them over the weekend, together with a walk-off grand slam from Giancarlo Stanton. Aaron Judge hit 60 house runs, so congratulations to him. Josh Donaldson could also be in the end beginning to warmth up after a depressing common season. Over his final seven video games, he’s slashed an eye-popping .333/.364/.567. A sizzling streak like this may well be excellent when they get to the playoffs. Still, regardless of how excellent they give the impression of being, I’m reluctant to mention they also have a likelihood at the American League Championship, let on my own the World Series. This staff can glance excellent when the entirety goes neatly, nevertheless it hardly ever does. So a ways, a high-powered offense has controlled to stay them going, however how lengthy can a subpar bullpen and a shaky again finish of the rotation hang up?

Cleveland Guardians (83 – 67)

Chance of constructing the postseason: 99.9% (FG), >99% (538)
Chance of profitable the World Series: 1.8% (FG), 2% (538)

Last we checked in on the Cleveland Guardians, they appeared on the precipice of letting the season cross to the White Sox, and now the inverse seems to be to be true. Despite struggling what appeared like a back-breaking loss to the White Sox on September sixteenth, the Guardians appear to be again in it much more so than ahead of. Instead of shriveling away, the Guardians surged to take 4 out of five from the Twins, capped with an enormous 11-4 victory. They would then journey this wave directly right into a three-game sweep of the White Sox, together with an 8-2 shellacking, the very same rating that the White Sox had beat them by means of every week prior. Now, all that being stated, they’re taking part in the AL Central, so it is not like they are operating in the market towards juggernauts, however the Guardians are linking wins in conjunction with ease at the second, and whilst the White Sox aren’t totally out of the department at the moment, they’ve been lovely considerably buried. With a 99.9% likelihood of profitable the department, the Guardians will almost definitely have this wrapped up inside of the following few days.

Wild Card Race

Toronto Blue Jays (84 – 66)

Chances of constructing the postseason: 99.8% (FG), >99% (538)
Chance of profitable the World Series: 6.6% (FG), 3% (538)

The Blue Jays are in a significantly better place than they have been only a week in the past, sitting excessive and mighty atop the Wild Card standings with a 1.5 recreation lead. Despite beginning the week with a loss to the Rays, the Blue Jays nonetheless went directly to take two out of 3 from the Orioles and break up two video games with the Phillies, together with a frankly very extraordinary 18-11 victory over the Phillies. The recreation integrated a Raimel Tapia triple (his 2nd of the 12 months) and a Jackie Bradley Jr. pinch-hit homerun off of former Blue Jay, Brad Hand, who was once famously terrible for them final 12 months, so yeah, truly bizarre recreation. While the Blue Jays haven’t been taking part in best baseball, they’re taking part in excellent sufficient baseball at a time when each the Mariners and Rays are sliding, the Rays having simply been swept by means of the Astros and the Mariners dropping 6 in their final 10. The Blue Jays glance poised to make an actual run this postseason. Matt Chapman in the end appears to be coming to lifestyles, slashing .304/.403/.739 in his final 7 video games; mixed with the sizzling bat of Bo Bichette they may make for an impressive duo down the line. Bolstered by means of a robust duo at the entrance of the rotation in the breakout 12 months from Alex Manoah and every other robust 12 months from Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays may well be bad in the postseason. Still, they’ve 3 extra video games towards the Yankees and Rays every this 12 months, so issues may just shift round a bit of but.

Tampa Bay Rays

Chances of constructing the postseason: 99.1% (FG), 98% (538)
Chance of profitable the World Series: 4.2%(FG), 3% (538)

The Rays adopted up a difficult collection with the Blue Jays by means of taking two out of 3 from the Rangers, bettering their Wild Card probabilities at the identical time the Mariners have stumbled. But the wind has fallen from their sails quite after you have swept in 3 video games by means of the A*tros. Now it is true the Astros are a excellent staff, however to get swept proper ahead of going into the final week of the season, all towards in-division competitors, a number of of whom you might be immediately racing for a playoff spot, it places just a little bit extra drive on the scenario. The Rays have a large collection towards the Blue Jays once more this weekend, and this will really well come to a decision the most sensible two Wild Card spots. Now isn’t the time to be stumbling, even though it’s to considered one of the absolute best groups in the league. On most sensible of that ace, Shane McClanahan exited his final get started with neck tightness. While he expects to make his subsequent get started and is simplest day by day for the second, coming off of a long-term harm, it is a signal of outrage. In the previous, the Rays have put in combination championship groups with novices and cast-offs, however taking a look at the state of this staff at the moment, and the festival confronted in the agenda forward, this could be the 12 months the wheels in the end fall off.

Seattle Mariners (82 – 67)

Chance of constructing the postseason: 99.7% (FG), >99% (538)
Chances of profitable the World Series: 4.1% (FG), 2% (538)

First, the excellent information: the Rays were given swept, and they’re about to enter a large collection with the Blue Jays; and the White Sox may get knocked out totally by means of the Guardians. Now the unhealthy information: the Mariners had been dropping a good bit, as I’m certain a lot of you spotted. They have misplaced 6 in their final 10, together with dropping a chain to the Angels and the A’s, either one of whom had been eradicated from playoff rivalry. On most sensible of that, Julio Rodríguez left the day prior to this’s recreation with again tightness (September twenty second), and is these days getting an MRI in Kansas City ahead of the get started of that weekend collection with the expectation he’ll be put on the IL. Despite all of this, since we final checked in, the Mariners’ magic quantity has dropped to eight, each the Orioles and the White Sox have begun to vanish, and the math stays strongly in their desire. Barring a actually ancient cave in—and I imply a cave in that transcends baseball as the worst cave in of all time in any game in any nation, a cave in that makes the implosion of the Kingdome appear to be scrunching up a work of paper—they virtually without a doubt make the playoffs. Now isn’t the time to panic. Yes, there were accidents and lackluster offense, however the pitching rotation, out of doors of a pair hiccups, has been nice, the bullpen has remained cast, regardless of some attention-grabbing outings from Diego Castillo, and Jarred Kelenic regarded implausible in his first recreation again with the giant membership. This fresh stretch doesn’t really feel such a lot like a setback and extra like an arrow being drawn, able to fly ahead.

Baltimore Orioles

Chances of constructing the playoffs: .9% (FG), 2% (538)
Chances of profitable the World Series: Come on, let’s be actual

The Orioles are nonetheless in the playoff race however are all however eradicated. They have dropped two collection in a row, one to the Blue Jays, hanging them additional again in the Wild Card, and the different to the Tigers, arguably considered one of the worst groups in the league. On most sensible of that they’re taking a look down the barrel of an actual assassin’s row, with a chain towards Boston (good enough that one is extra of a gentle maiming), the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Astros left on their agenda. Despite hanging on a valiant effort, coming shut in each the Wild Card and the Rookie of the Year, this simply is not going to be the 12 months for the O’s. Starting subsequent 12 months, even though, this staff has some actual skill. Ryan Mountcastle, Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rustchman, Cedric Mullens: there is a playoff staff in right here, and relying on what they do in the offseason, they may truly be a risk subsequent 12 months.

Chicago White Sox

Chances of constructing the postseason: .8% (FG), <1% (538)
Chances of profitable the World Series: No.

The White Sox did have an opportunity final week, sitting lovely at a fifteen% likelihood of constructing the postseason. Their future was once actually in their palms, and guy, did they screw it up. They began out robust, profitable the one-game collection towards the Guardians, then took two out of 3 from the Tigers, however it is been just about all downhill from there. Following the Tigers’ victory, the White Sox have been promptly swept by means of the Guardians, virtually without a doubt finishing any hope that they had of sneaking a department identify. Yes, the wild card continues to be conceivable however not possible. The math simply isn’t in their desire. The White Sox are all however eradicated, capping a disappointing 12 months on the South Side. This was once intended to be a 12 months they took a large step ahead, and as an alternative they took a large step again. Maybe if all of them napped in the dugout like LaRussa, they’d win extra video games?

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