Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres

With 22 video games to head, the Mariners handiest want to win 3 extra video games to ensure a successful report and are tied with Toronto within the first Wild Card slot. As if that’s no longer sufficient, the Vedder Cup is at the line this weekend because the San Diego Padres come to the city! Having received each video games in San Diego in July, Seattle can be raring for a season sweep, using the top of an exhilarating weekend taking part in the Braves. Momentum is at the Mariners’ aspect in each instructions: the staff took two of 3 from the reigning champs prior to this sequence, and as soon as the Padres go away they’re going to face handiest groups with data underneath .500…a minimum of thru recreation 162. With Tampa Bay and Toronto going head-to-head this week, any video games the M’s win in opposition to the Padres achieve them flooring in opposition to some of the groups they’re jostling with within the Wild Card race, and any video games the M’s lose will cede flooring to the opposite.

At a Glance

Padres Mariners
Padres Mariners
Game 1 Tuesday, September 13 | 6:40 pm
RHP Yu Darvish RHP Logan Gilbert
48% 52%
Game 2 Wednesday, September 14 | 1:10 pm
RHP Mike Clevinger RHP Luis Castillo
37% 63%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team Overview

Overview Padres Mariners Edge
Overview Padres Mariners Edge
Batting (wRC+) 100 (seventh in NL) 106 (fifth in AL) Mariners
Fielding (OAA) 16 (2d) 9 (fifth) Padres
Starting Pitching (FIP-) 99 (seventh) 104 (eighth) Padres
Bullpen (FIP-) 91 (4th) 97 (eighth) Padres

The Mariners fit up beautiful neatly in opposition to the Padres, as observed by means of their two-game sweep in July, during which the M’s outscored the Friars fourteen to 4 (and then they went on to comb the Blue Jays at house in 4 video games #TMoTakeback). Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert are each appreciated over the opposing starters on this sequence, and the Mariners have a slight batting edge in opposition to the Padres. That mentioned, complacency isn’t warranted when dealing with a generational megastar, and the Padres headlined the business cut-off date by means of choosing up one Juan Soto. In that business, the Padres received Soto and primary baseman Josh Bell from the Nationals, and in go back despatched over a primary baseman of their very own plus lots of the key possibilities of their farm device. This is along with choosing up nearer Josh Hader from the Brewers and utilityman Brandon Drury from the Reds ultimate month.

These strikes have no longer all panned out because the Padres was hoping for thus far, however they unquestionably sign a push for luck now; for the reason that, the place does the staff in finding itself because the season winds to a detailed? San Diego sits in a robust 2nd position within the NL West at the back of the league-topping Dodgers. They dropped two of 3 to mentioned Dodgers ultimate weekend, bringing them to a 4-5 report in September so far. Like the Mariners, the Padres are ensconced in a fierce three-way Wild Card race, however of their case handiest two of the 3 groups will play a Game 163: the Braves have a ten.5 recreation lead within the NL Wild Card race, and the Phillies, Padres, and Brewers are inside 3 of one another, competing for the general two slots. If the season ended these days, the Padres would eke in with the 6th playoff seed within the NL and play a 3 recreation set in St. Louis.

Padres Lineup

Player Position Bats PA BABIP wRC+ BsR
Player Position Bats PA BABIP wRC+ BsR
Jurickson Profar LF S 577 0.265 111 -0.4
Juan Soto RF L 576 0.241 143 -2.5
Manny Machado 3B R 558 0.339 153 3.7
Josh Bell DH S 587 0.306 128 -5.3
Jake Cronenworth 2B L 601 0.279 112 5.8
Ha-Seong Kim SS R 499 0.293 101 0.7
Wil Myers 1B R 236 0.343 85 0.8
Trent Grisham CF L 486 0.229 90 6.0
Austin Nola C R 349 0.281 84 -0.5

There are a few avid gamers one would possibly previous have anticipated to look within the Padre’s lineup who’re absent this week. Star shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr. will pass over all of the 2022 season, having been suspended for banned substance use in a while prior to he was once set to go back to the sector after having wrist surgical operation. Third baseman Brandon Drury is at the concussion injured checklist after taking a pitch to his batting helmet ultimate week.

As for the avid gamers we’ll see dealing with the Mariners pitching this week, slugger Manny Machado leads the staff offensively with a 153 wRC+ and 28 house runs. Juan Soto has been suffering moderately slightly since coming to San Diego; his wRC+ this yr in Washington was once 150, and as a Padre it’s recently 119. Soto is obviously annoyed by means of this, but if he figures it out, he and Machado can be a drive to take care of within the center of the lineup. Former most sensible MLB prospect Jurickson Profar is making an have an effect on with a stroll charge of 12% and an fWAR some of the most sensible 20 MLB outfielders. Second baseman Jake Cronenworth, too, is having a just right yr, trailing handiest Machado in place participant fWAR at the staff.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

RHP Yu Darvish

IP Ok% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
IP Ok% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
168 2/3 24.9% 5.0% 10.4% 37.9% 3.31 3.49
Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Rate Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+
Four-seam 23.9% 95.1 2413 130 95 83
Sinker 9.6% 94.8 2279 116 105 134
Cutter 35.2% 86.6 2759 116 106 106
Splitter 7.8% 89.3 1309 38 129 101
Curveball 4.9% 73.2 2652 91 79 127
Slider 18.7% 82.5 2736 106 79 71

It’s laborious to consider, however Yu Darvish is in the midst of his 10th season within the primary leagues after coming over from Japan as a 25-year-old. He’s persevered to make use of a deep repertoire to stay batters off stability, although his as soon as gaudy strikeout charge has fallen to a career-low 24.9% this season. The largest reason why for that decline is the ineffectiveness of his four-seam fastball. He’s misplaced about two inches of trip at the pitch and its whiff charge has fallen to a six-year low at simply 20.1%. He’s nonetheless in a position to generate numerous susceptible touch with it so it hasn’t been completely unproductive. And with a plethora of secondary pitches to name on, his general effects had been as forged as ever.


RHP Mike Clevinger

IP Ok% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
IP Ok% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
93 2/3 20.4% 7.5% 11.8% 34.9% 4.13 4.66
Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Rate Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+
Four-seam 37.9% 93.7 2293 127 99 71
Sinker 12.3% 93.1 2224 72 91 83
Cutter 15.4% 87.0 2462 89 116 84
Changeup 10.3% 86.5 1583 71 111 141
Curveball 2.6% 76.5 2212
Slider 21.5% 79.9 2435 84 89 97

From a prior sequence preview:

Mike Clevinger was once traded to the Padres right through the shortened 2020 season however handiest made 4 begins in San Diego prior to succumbing to Tommy John surgical operation. He ignored the entire 2021 season and a spring knee damage stored him sidelined till May. He’s made six begins this yr and he’s nonetheless shaking off some rust. When he’s proper, he has a deep arsenal that may produce a ton of swings and misses. Right now, his cutter is the one pitch producing whiffs at an above reasonable charge, however his four-seamer, slider, and changeup have all produced very good effects prior to now. That cutter was once a brand new addition to his repertoire again in 2020, and it helped give him any other weapon at a speed band in between his laborious fastball and sweeping slider.

The Mariners scored 4 runs in six innings in Clevinger’s ultimate trip in opposition to them in July. He allowed six hits, two walks, and struck out 5.


The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Astros 91-50 0.645 W-W-L-W-W
Mariners 79-61 0.564 11.5 W-L-L-W-W
Angels 61-80 0.433 30.0 L-L-W-L-L
Rangers 61-80 0.433 30.0 L-L-W-W-L
Athletics 51-90 0.362 40.0 L-L-L-L-W

The Wild Card Race

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Mariners 79-61 0.564 +0.5 W-L-L-W-W
Blue Jays 79-61 0.564 +0.5 W-W-W-L-W
Rays 78-61 0.561 W-W-L-L-L
Orioles 73-67 0.521 5.5 W-L-W-L-L
White Sox 72-69 0.511 7.0 W-W-W-W-L

In the AL West it’s usual, usual: the Astros are 11 video games up over the M’s, Oakland’s within the basement, and the Rangers and Angels are flip-flopping backward and forward 18-ish video games at the back of the Mariners. At this level, all 3 of the groups at the back of the M’s in our department had been mathematically eradicated from the playoffs.

The Orioles, White Sox, and Twins are falling additional down within the Wild Card standings, at 5 and a part, seven, and 9 video games again respectively. The Mariners, Blue Jays, and Rays manner a state of quantum entanglement, separated by means of a complete of a part recreation overall and dancing round equivalent data. As it stands these days, the Mariners and Blue Jays are each 79-61, and the Rays are a part recreation again at 78-61. If the season ended now, the Rays would play 3 video games at Cleveland, and the Mariners would host the Jays as a result of they received the head-to-head season sequence. #TMoTakeback certainly.

After the Blue Jays beat the Rays 3-2 the day before today, the 2 groups play 4 extra this week, beginning with a doubleheader these days. The Orioles can be dealing with the Nationals, the White Sox the Rockies, and the Twins will host the Royals.

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